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POLL: WILL MOST NEW CARS BE SELF-DRIVING BY 2030? >>

Debate is raging in the transportation industry as to the time-scale for the adoption of self-driving vehicles. Some say the technology will take decades to be fully perfected and will be so fraught with operational challenges that it might never be completely commercial. Others state confidently that the revolution is just around the corner.


WILL MOST NEW CARS BE SELF-DRIVING BY 2030?

To draw out the issues, the latest Big Debate in Traffic Technology International magazine pits two experts with differing opinions against each other. To read the full article click here.

Now we want to know what you think. Will most (over 50%) of new cars have fully self-driving ability (level 4 autonomy) by 2030? Have your say in our latest online poll below. But first a quick recap on our experts’ opinions…




Todd Litman

“During the 2020s and early 2030s, they are likely to be expensive novelties with restrictions on the road conditions under which they may operate. It will probably be the 2040s or 2050s before middle-income families can afford to own self-driving vehicles that can safely operate in all conditions, and even longer before lower-income households can purchase them on the used-vehicle market. A large portion of motorists may resist such vehicles, just as some motorists prefer manual transmissions, resulting in mixed traffic that creates new roadway management problems.”
Todd Litman, founder and executive director the Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Canada, an independent research organization dedicated to developing innovative solutions to transportation problems



Dr Alexander Hars

“In the past it has taken decades for new automotive technology to catch on, that is because it was initially costly and the benefits were not always obvious. But with self-driving cars it will be very different, because they provide an immediate benefit: they give you back your time. It’s easy to put an hourly value on your own time based on your earnings, so it is much easier to quantify the value of autonomous driving. Therefore people will be more willing to pay. For early adopters these cars will quickly become a status symbol: they can arrive at the office having worked, or relaxed, in their car.”
Dr Alexander Hars, editor of the website Driverless Car Market Watch and managing director of software development firm Inventivio


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Debate surrounding autonomous vehicles is heating up. Hear presentations on the subject from the world's leading experts at The Autonomous Vehicle Test & Development Symposium in Stuttgart, from May 31 - June 2. Book your delegate pass here

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